Today I got faked out. I knew I didn’t have an edge this morning so I tried to wait until the market revealed itself. We opened higher and quickly reversed, so I thought it was time to short. I looked at Potash (NYSE: POT) to the downside but the gap down and the immediate push lower made me step away. So I decided to get in my back up play Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU). The Technology sector has been very strong and if we were to go into a new leg down then I knew nothing was safe. How wrong was I!! By 10:20am, I was realizing that BIDU did not want to break below $280 and as soon as the market started gaining strength along with BIDU, I got out and got into Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS).
Understand that these plays were planned before the market opened. You have to do this, if not you will be caught like a deer in the headlights trying to jump in any stock. My thought process after Meredith Whitney upgraded GS was to play the momentum higher on a gap up intra-day play as long as the market went higher with it. And if the market reversed to go down, I was going to play Baidu because Potash was too weak in pre-market.
So in the end, I road Goldman Sachs throughout the day. Looking back, I wished I played Morgan Stanley as it’s run was a lot better. Speaking of that, I will be looking to play that tomorrow as long as Goldman Sachs beats earnings and open higher along with the market. I’ve learned that you can’t fight the Fed, the government, and now Goldman Sachs. They all run the markets because they set the rules. Even though fundamentally I think the market should be lower, only price pays. So I now believe a great Goldman Sachs Earnings Release the market will continue it’s upside momentum tomorrow.
Trade Ideas
Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC)- I believe that Meredith Whitney is correct with her analysis about banks and I expect them to trade higher. Goldman Sachs will set the tone tomorrow and a positive report will keep the financials going higher for at least another day. If we gap higher by too much then I will let the stocks pull back in the morning and look for prudent entries. I see MS target $30 and BAC target $14. But with this being said, I Understand that at any second this market can reverse and the second that happens I’m out any upside moves…PERIOD!
Trade Reviews
I did not enter into the Potash trade to the downside as it gap lowered and I missed my entry point. Understand you have to have good risk/reward when trading. If a stock gets away from me then I do not chase it but look for other setups. As the market rallied today Potash gained strength.
Discussion
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