stock market

Market Indecision

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Today was the second day where the market traded in a tight range (Two doji’s on the S&P daily). Right now it seems we can not get above the January highs on the S&P. The 950 area can also be viewed as the end of the ‘V’ shaped rally where the Jan highs would be the start of the ‘V’. I think Monday’s late day surge convinced a lot of traders that we are in a bull market and they are tired of waiting for a pullback. This frustration caused a lot of weak bears to cover their shorts and last minute bulls to go long. We will at some point get a correction. The key thing is to be patience. I believe it will happen when it is least expected. The big question right now is “are we in an inflationary or deflationary period?” If the economy is still slowing I believe we will break the 666 lows of March at some point late summer. If we have now entered into an inflationary period then the pullback will probably be around 10%.

Posted on June 9, 2009
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