stock market

Will the market break above the 200 or below the 50?

50and200ma

Right now the S&P 500 is wedging between the 200 and 50 period moving averages (MA) on the daily chart. I think a sustained break above or below will be the tell on how the market will behave throughout the summertime. Right now, I have a bias to the downside and believe the market may decline further than a normal 10% percent correction as economic data does not improve. Even though the rally was one of the most powerful we have seen since October 2007, I think it was equal to the March-May 2008 rally as the market rallied from below the 50MA all the way to the 200MA. Right now I am sitting in cash, waiting for a break either above or below.


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